Why the Scottish independence vote matters for the rest of the UK and what it could mean for sport

Leigh Thompson discusses what a Scottish Yes vote could mean for sport in the rest of the UK and the UK's relationship with Europe.

With recent polls suggesting the referendum is balanced on a knife-edge, it is little surprise that the Scottish independence debate is dominating the news.

Understandably most of the coverage is focussed on the potentially seismic ramifications of a ‘Yes’ vote and the mechanics of how a newly-independent Scotland would be formed, separate from the rest of the UK (rUK).

As far as the sports sector goes, James Allen’s recent blog set out some of the potential consequences of an independent Scotland.

This has sparked a great deal of subsequent debate – both within sports governing bodies and the wider media – about how structures and funding might be rearranged between Scotland and other members of the Union and the precise status of any new Scottish teams at major championships.

Whilst this debate is necessarily inward-looking, more broadly there is reason to believe an independent Scotland – or indeed a Scotland with greater devolved powers – could drive a significant shift in the rUK’s relationship with Europe.

And this, in turn, could have a major impact on sport – both at elite and grassroots levels.

At this point you might be forgiven for thinking ‘this is all very well but it’ll never come to pass.’ Well, many people thought the same about Scottish independence up until last weekend!

Now the pro-Union parties are scrambling to offer greater devolved powers in a last-ditch bid to galvanise the ‘No’ vote.

Indeed what the changing polls demonstrate is the danger that arises from complacency: assuming that any political outcome is predetermined is fraught with risk.

So how would an independent Scotland affect the rUK’s relationship with Europe? A glance at the political map from the 2010 General Election is instructive here. It shows that, outside of Labour’s traditional ‘heartlands’ – the Northern city-regions, the North East, inner London and South Wales – most of the rUK is dominated by the Conservatives.

Importantly, even if the Conservative position on Europe is equivocal, it is a party far more inclined towards exit from the EU than that of Labour which is keen to remain a member.

Crucially, for Labour, an independent Scotland would remove the seats it holds there (41 of a total 258) from the electoral equation meaning that, to retain its influence in the rUK it would need to take seats back from the Conservatives.

One possibility is that the presence of UKIP may split the Conservative vote but this is by no means guaranteed – the recent Local and European elections demonstrated that UKIP is capable of taking both Labour and Conservative votes.

Furthermore, UKIP’s position on membership of the EU is even more Eurosceptic than that of the Conservatives.

In this context it is entirely possible that a General Election in a new rUK would result in, at the very least, a referendum on EU membership and, potentially, an actual exit.

Importantly, even a ‘No’ vote in Scotland could result in the same outcome. This is because a ‘No’ vote followed by further devolution of powers (so-called ‘Devo-Max’) would almost certainly resurrect a newer version of the ‘West Lothian Question’ – whether Scottish MPs should have a say on policies largely affecting rUK.

Were the rUK parliamentary seats to be dominated by Conservative and/or UKIP it is difficult to see how these tensions would not come to the fore.

So what would an exit from the EU mean for sport? This is a difficult question and one that I could not attempt to answer in detail here. Nonetheless it is possible to identify some key areas of concern for sport arising from the possibility of an EU exit.

Of particular importance, certainly for professional sports, would be the extent to which provisions contained in the key treaties – the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) – would no longer apply.

Some aspects of these arrangements could be maintained through bilateral agreements but it is by no means certain.

The TFEU in particular entrenches a number of key principles that underpin the EU internal market, notably freedom of movement and freedom to provide services.

These principles are the foundations on which much of the ‘superstructure’ of professional sport rests and in one way or another they have a bearing on a diverse range of key features – from the player transfers right through to the sale of sports broadcasting rights.

To take a particular example – freedom of movement. In accordance with this fundamental principle, EU citizens are able to move freely between Member States to live and work.

However, were an rUK to exit from the EU it would become possible to apply restrictions on the movement of EU citizens into rUK, for example to meet wider net migration objectives.

From a sporting perspective this would raise important questions, particularly for those sports heavily reliant on the transfer of players from other EU countries.

For example, what would be the future position of EU players legally residing in the rUK at the point of exit? Would a points-based system – similar to that currently applied to non-EU nationals – be applied to players transferring from other EU states?

Complex issues would also arise on issues like trade and taxation and which could impact on grassroots sport.

The EU operates as a customs union which ensures no tariffs are applied to goods moving between Member States with a common tariff applied to goods entering from outside the EU.

An EU exit would mean renegotiating these trading relationships. Clearly the outcome of these negotiations is impossible to predict but one result could be the application of tariffs to some products exported from the EU for consumption in the rUK.

As an example, were the rUK to ‘inherit’ the tariff structure currently applied by the EU, analysis indicates footwear imported from the EU could be subject to an import tariff of almost 8%.

This kind of increase in the cost of sporting goods would have knock-on consequences for hard-pressed sports clubs and grassroots participation.

These are admittedly hypothetical situations and a lot of political ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ stand in the way of an EU exit, not least the forthcoming vote on 18th September.

However, if the Scottish independence referendum tells us anything it is that no-one should be complacent when it comes to politics.

Read more blogs by Leigh.

Read more Sport and Recreation Alliance blogs.

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